Foreign

By Kennedy Nnamani

THREE weeks into what the U.S described as “full-scale war, naked aggression, unprovoked, brutal assault on the civilians of Ukraine”, “Russia’s premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attack on Ukraine”, the war between the two nations of the former USSR has caused much uproar on the media and the international community.

As of today no less than 549 civilians are dead and 957 injured, among which are 26 children (according to a report from the UN). Reports for the US military have also estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 Ukrainian armed forces, national guards and volunteer forces have been killed, also between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, while the Ukrainian armed forces stated that more than 12,000 Russian troops have been killed since 24 February.

This is coming in the year when Russia has planned to intensify relations with Africa as contained in one of its goals in its foreign policy for 2022. But with the numerous sanctions falling out from all over the world, including Africa, obviously everyone is expecting changes.

Meanwhile, responses continue to impound to the calls from international organizations for all nations as well as African nations to add their voices to condemn the Russian invasion in Ukraine through various means of sanctions on Russia.

However, as the conflict lingers, it is not leaving developing countries, most of which are in Africa, out of its effects being that these countries have direct ties with either the warring nations or their allies. Besides, the International Monetary Fund, IMF, had earlier disclosed that the war in Ukraine can have a devastating blow for Africa.

Generally in Africa, as it is gradually recovering from the scourge of COVID pandemic, this conflict has started to trickle some impact, especially in the area of food price, lower tourism revenues and oil and gas as the continent is currently facing an escalation in energy prices including aviation fuel, PMS, diesel, kerosene and gas which no doubt triggers smuggling of these commodities. Already, oil price is above $120 per barrel and this impact is already going down hard on nations of the world, especially the African nations, which majorly depend on oil for their GDP. No doubt, the hike in this price obviously has huge inflationary implications on all other sectors of the nations not excluding bills and budgets of these countries.

In terms of economic relationship for small Island nations like Seychelles, for example, whose GDP depends mostly on tourism from Russia and Ukraine, it is found between the devil and deep blue sea because whatever decision this country takes will either make or mar its economy.

Although the U.S had earlier promised to support African nations which support the call to stand for the end of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, however, for how long would this support last and to what extent does this nations want to depend on these helps?

For a nation like Nigeria, which has bilateral discussions with the Russian government to resuscitate the Ajaokuta Steel Plant, this ongoing conflict, if not stopped, is likely going to hamper this agreement due to the surge of sanctions imposed on Russia.

Also, countries, which mostly depend on importation of their major foods are suffering the impact of the war. Egypt for instance, which imports wheat they consume from Russia is no doubt one of the most vulnerable nations.

According to Yvonne Mhango, head of Africa research at Renaissance Capital, “The first and most pronounced effect will be via the surge in global commodity prices, particularly for oil and wheat,”

Although some countries suffer (financially) the blow of this crisis, some would be enjoying the dividends of it. Renaissance capital reported that countries that export commodities like Nigeria and Angola are set to win big from the effect of the war as the price of this commodity is raining gains into their economy.

However, the effect of the war remains a setback to the development of the world in all ramifications, especially as the world gradually recovers from the surge of the pandemic.

KN

Tags: Africa Regional Media Hub IMF Kennedy Nnamani Renaissance Capital United Nations Yvonne Mhango