Air Passengers in Nigeria Decline in Q1 2017

Fri, Jun 2, 2017 | By publisher


Aviation, Featured

By Anayo Ezugwu  |  Jun 12, 2017 @ 01:00 GMT  |

IN the first quarter of 2017, the total number of passengers to pass through Nigerian airports declined, with the airports recording 2,505,612 passengers. Of these, 67.3 percent were domestic passengers, travelling within Nigeria, and the rest were international, entering or leaving Nigeria.

This represents a considerable drop when compared to both the previous quarter of 31.3 percent and the same quarter of the previous year of 34.5 percent, based on revised 2016 first quarter figures.

The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, NBS, in its first quarter report of the air transport stated that part of the reason for this decline is that the Federal Aviation Authority of Nigeria, FAAN, was because data for several additional airports were not available for the current period.

Henceforth, it said this report will exclude these airports to ensure a consistent comparison. However, excluding these, and comparing the same airports, the sharp decline remains.

Real Year on Year Growth in Air Transport Sector
Real Year on Year Growth in Air Transport Sector

Source: NBS

Relative to the previous quarter, the report noted that there were 983,705 fewer passengers, a fall of 28.2 percent, and relative to the first quarter of 2016 there were 1,165,482 fewer or 29.4 percent less.

This was largely due to the closure of Abuja Airport from March 8th. There were 311,261 fewer domestic passengers to travel through Abuja Airport relative to the previous quarter.

However, the NBS said the effect on the total number would not be limited to a reduction in passengers travelling through Abuja, as each domestic passenger to leave Abuja would have also counted as an arrival at a different domestic airport, and vice versa. Therefore, although all airports saw a reduction in domestic passenger numbers, this is still partly explained by the Abuja Airport closure.

“It should also be noted that quarterly declines in the total number of passengers were also recorded in the previous two quarters, and therefore given this trend, it is unlikely that all of the reduction in passenger numbers was due to the closure, as demand for flights was already declining. This also helps to explain the divergent trends between domestic and international passenger numbers. Relative to the previous quarter, there was a fall of 32.2 percent in domestic passenger numbers, compared to a fall of 18.2 percent in international passenger numbers,” it said.

Whereas fewer domestic departures from Abuja mean fewer domestic arrivals at other airports, the same effect is not present for international passengers. Relative to the first quarter of 2016, there were 31.9 percent fewer domestic passengers in total, and 23.7 percent fewer international.

Despite the clear effect of the Abuja airport closure, there were clearly other factors that led to the quarterly and year-on-year declines, as evidenced by fewer passengers travelling through most international airports, and some domestic airports recording even sharper declines than Abuja.

The NBS report showed that there was a quarterly fall in the number of domestic passengers of 32.2 percent, or 801,013 passengers, and a year-on-year fall of 31.9 percent or 789,757, when considering the same set of airports. As discussed, this was partly caused by the closure of Abuja Airport from March 8. It said that there were 311,261 fewer domestic passengers to travel through Abuja relative to the previous quarter, and 321,952 relative to the first quarter of 2016, and this would have caused an equivalent fall across all other airports connected to Abuja.

Also, the quarterly report noted that over half of the decline can be attributed to the closure and that Murtala Muhammed Airport, MMA, in Lagos, remained the busiest domestic airport in the first quarter of 2017. The MMA accounted for 698,165 domestic passengers, or 41.4 percent of the total. This was a higher share than both the previous quarter, and the first quarter of 2016, whose shares were 36.6 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively.

“Although this airport recorded quarterly and year-on-year falls of 23.3 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively, these were less steep than the declines recorded in the total number of domestic passengers.

Despite the closure, Abuja Airport remained the second largest domestic airport, and accounted for 499,149 passengers, or 29.6 percent of the total.

However, Abuja recorded by far the largest declines in domestic passenger numbers in absolute terms, recording a quarterly fall of 311,261 and a year-on-year fall of 321,952, or 38.4 percent and 39.2 percent, respectively. Abuja’s share of domestic passengers in the first quarter of 2017 was lower than that in the previous quarter of 32.6 percent, and in the same quarter of the previous year, of 33.2 percent.

As in previous quarters, the third busiest domestic airport in 2016 was Port Harcourt, which accounted for 189,843, or 11.3 percent of the total. This was an increase from shares recorded in the previous quarter (8.4 percent) and in the same quarter of the previous year (10.2 percent).

Likewise, the number of international passengers to travel to and from Nigeria declined, but not as steeply as the number of domestic passengers. The international passengers recorded quarterly fall of 18.2 percent, and a year-on-year fall of 23.7 percent. It stated that the closure of Abuja airport had less of an effect on international passenger numbers than domestic, because in the case of domestic travel, each trip made to or from Abuja has a corresponding effect on another domestic airport.

Nevertheless, the decline was also broad-based with nearly all airports contributing to the decline as with domestic travel, MMA in Lagos was the airport to account for the largest number of international travellers, with 627,406 passing through in the first quarter of 2017.

However, Lagos dominates international travel far more than domestic; in the first quarter of 2017 Lagos accounted for 76.5 percent of international passengers, or over three quarters. This was a higher share than in the previous quarter, when it was 71.9 percent, and when compared to the first quarter of 2016, when the share was 72.1 percent. In both cases, the increase was largely at the expense of Abuja, as may be expected due to the closure.

Nevertheless, Lagos airport recorded the largest declines in absolute terms with 93,775 fewer passengers than in the previous quarter, and 146,900 fewer than in the first quarter of 2016.These are equivalent to quarterly and year-on-year declines of 13.0 percent and 19.0 percent. Abuja airport remained the second busiest international airport in the first quarter of 2017, and accounted for 124,578 passengers, or 15.2 percent of the total. Even though Abuja airport was shut for a significant amount of time during the quarter, it retained a high share of passenger numbers due to its importance as the capital of Nigeria, and seat of government.

“Although some trips may have been cancelled due to the closure, some may have been brought forward into February, limiting the overall impact. Nevertheless, the share of international passengers accounted for by Abuja was lower than the share of 20.0 percent recorded in the previous quarter and of 20.5 percent recorded in the previous year.

Kano International Airport remained the third largest in the first quarter of 2017, with 38,501 passengers to pass through, and was one of the only international airports to record a quarterly increase in passenger numbers, of 6,240, or 19.3 percent. Year-on-year, however, the number of passengers travelling through Kano International fell by 7,002 passengers, or 15.4 percent.

Kano’s share in the first quarter of 2017 was 4.7 percent, higher than both that of 3.2 percent recorded in the previous quarter, and of 4.2 percent in the same quarter of the previous year, NBS said.

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