Business
…countries will have to adapt or perish – Lux Research analysts
THE Lux Research says the past year has been an unprecedented time, with COVID-19 having an immediate and significant impact on all aspects of the energy sector.
The company is of the view that despite the dramatic consequences COVID-19 is having on the global economy, the energy transition will be accelerated by several years.
“Trillions of dollars are expected to flow through economic relief packages into the deployment of low- and zero-carbon infrastructure as well as research and development into technologies that enable it,” Lux Research stated in its new report entitled: “Owning The Energy Transition: 2020 COVID-19 Update.”
Lux analysts outline these changes and predict the impact of the disruptive changes to the global energy transition going forward.
Yuan-Sheng Yu, senior analyst at Lux Research said: “The aftermath of COVID-19 will shake the economic fabric of the energy sector.
“We witnessed many historical firsts, such as oil futures trading in the negatives, U.S. renewable energy in the electricity mix surpassing coal, and the largest year-over-year drop in global CO2 emissions.”
According to Yu, while the sudden effects may be a flash in the pan as the world returns to normalcy, 2020 provided a preview of the more permanent challenges the industry will face in the next decade. This “white swan” event will force companies to learn how to be more resilient, while countries planning their post-COVID recovery will capitalise on the opportunity and accelerate the energy transition through improved resiliency and greater agility and by insulating themselves from the macroeconomic impacts of the volatile conventional energy sector.
Tim Grejtak, another Lux Research analyst, said: “The pandemic highlighted the risks of disruptions to our current energy infrastructure and supply chain.
“In response, we will see aggressive diversification of business portfolios to avoid the risk of underutilised and, eventually, stranded assets in order to capitalise on opportunities provided by increasing renewable energies.”
Grejtak cites long-duration energy storage investments and project developments in the first half of 2020 by the likes of Highview Power, Form Energy, and AES Distributed Energy as just the beginning of the added urgency of companies preparing for the energy transition.
Also, Runeel Daliah from Lux Research states that “While COVID-19 momentarily pushed aside climate change from the political discourse, companies and countries that deprioritise climate change mitigation efforts in favour of near-term financial recovery would be making a mistake –decarbonisation is an unavoidable megatrend that will continue to loom well after COVID-19.”
Daliah cites countries forging ahead with decarbonisation strategies centered around hydrogen such as Portugal, South Korea, Australia, and Germany, which recently unveiled a $10.2 billion national hydrogen strategy.
On his part, Christopher Robinson, Lux Research senior analyst emphasises that the most noticeable effect of COVID-19 on modern life was the drastic reduction in mobility. As the world sheltered in place, there was an immediate reduction in emissions and improvement in air quality, with residents in some cities notorious for pollution seeing blue skies for the first time.
Robinson says: “The magnitude of the longer-term impact of COVID-19 on mobility remains unclear as more people work from home and replace work travel with virtual meetings, but the push to reduce and eliminate emissions from the transportation sector has only increased, with many post-COVID stimulus plans focused on low- and zero-emission vehicles.”
– Aug. 13, 2020 @ 11: 45 GMT |
Tags: COVID-19 speeds up energy transition Runeel Daliah Tim Grejtak Yuan-Sheng Yu
