THE Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, in its monthly oil market report has said that global oil supply fell by 41,000 barrels per day, bpd, in April. The organisation said world oil supply fell by 0.41 million barrels per day, mbpd, in April to average 95.81 mbpd.

However, global oil production was 831,000 barrels daily higher than a year ago and increased by 363,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of the year, it added. The report said: “Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 was revised down by 18,000 barrels per day due to a downward revision of Russian oil supply in fourth quarter of 2016 to average 57.30 million barrels per day – indicating a year-on-year decline of 0.71 million barrels per day.

In contrast, oil supply in 2017 was revised up by 0.36 million barrels per day to average 58.25 million barrels per day – representing year-on-year growth of 0.95 million barrels per day, following changes in all quarters, mostly in the US, based on US actual production data from February and new forecasts for crude oil output.

In 2017, US growth forecast was revised up again, rising by 0.28 million barrels per day to average 0.82 million barrels per day. Similarly, but to a lesser extent, Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan were revised up, while the growth forecasts for Mexico, China, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Oman and Colombia were in decline.

OPEC natural gas liquids, NGLs, and non-conventional oil production in 2016 was revised down by 34,000 barrels per day to average 6.05 million barrels per day, and indicates a growth of 0.11 million barrels per day year-on-year, while for 2017, the growth forecast was revised up by 40,000 barrels per day to 0.17 million barrels per day to average 6.22 million barrel per day.

In April, OPEC production decreased by 18,000 bpd, according to secondary sources, to average 31.73 mbpd. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is estimated to have averaged 57.30 mbpd, representing a decline of 0.71 mbpd over the previous year, and a downward revision of 0.02 mbpd from the last assessment.

Within the quarters, non-OPEC oil supply encountered historical downward revisions in fourth of 2016 by 72,000 bpd, only in Russia. Non-OPEC supply in 2016 saw strong declines in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Americas (0.47 mbpd), China (0.31 mbpd), and developing countries (0.10 mbpd.

It added that preliminary March and last month’s data based on weekly figures show a return to an upward trend with industrial, road transportation fuels, notably distillates and motor gasoline, accounting for the bulk of these increases.

—  May 29, 2017 @ 01:00 GMT