Oil & Gas
By Anthony Isibor
WITH the global population projected to grow by 25% from the current 8 billion to over 10 billion people by 2050, Tony Attah, Independent Energy Consultant and a former managing director of the Nigeria LNG says there is a need to ensure balance between the quest for cleaner energy and energy security.
Delivering a paper on Future of gas, Nigerian economy and the global energy transition at the Petroleum Club, Attah opined that nations have suddenly realized that the planet has become endangered and that we are treading a very thin line between survival and our personal comfort, especially on the back of huge, forecasted growth in energy levels.
According to him, Africa alone will grow from its current 1.5 billion to about 2.5 billion, being about 67% population growth compared to the global average of 25%. This means that about half of the world’s expected population growth will come from Africa.
He noted that the forecast is even more exciting when you focus on Nigeria. Nigeria is expected to grow from the current 200 million people to about 400 million, which is 100% population growth within the same time frame.
According to him, while the effect of climate change is driving the acceleration of renewed focus on energy transition and consequently, the changing global energy mix and energy systems from fossil fuels to other cleaner sources, there is a deficiency between the global average population growth of 25% against the global average energy demand growth of 40%.
“Global energy demand is obviously going to outpace global population growth, but a closer look at Africa and Nigeria with population growth of 67% and 100% respectively, would suggest that the global energy demand projection may not be in tandem with what Africa and indeed Nigeria will need. Whether you see this as an opportunity or as a risk for Nigeria will depend on which side of the divide you stand. Bottom Line, the world will need more energy, Nigeria, and the rest of Africa will need it even more. About 50% of Africa, approximately 600 million people, do not have direct access to reticulated electricity and for Nigeria, we will not just talk about access to electricity, but the juxtaposition of reliability, availability and more importantly affordability.
“Let us now overlay this population growth accompanied by predicted prosperity of more people in society, with the advent of technological improvements. More people will have access to phones and electronics that will require charging, more people will require air conditioning – heating or cooling, depending on where you are in the world. Mobility and travels will increase, more households will transit to the next level in economic advancement as part of the overall growth. On balance the global energy demand is projected to grow by about 40% in the same time frame.
“Nigeria and indeed the world seem to have taken the evolution of energy for granted until the recent awakening realities of new science, and the greater awareness of the impact of continuing to burn hydrocarbons at the ongoing scale,” he added.
Attah also said that the current reality makes the push for 100% elimination of hydrocarbons, especially oil and gas, from the global energy mix by 2050, a very wishful and difficult task.
According to him, to satisfy the level of energy demand growth, it is expected that fossil fuels will continue to be dominant in the total energy consumed globally, with the balance in the energy mix coming from Renewables and Nuclear fission.
“This situation would speak to the Energy Trilemma with respect to needing more energy to meet the growing demand as well as balancing the sustainability priority of ensuring that whatever we do today in terms of our energy choices, we do not jeopardize the future existence of the next generation yet unborn. The energy transition and changes to energy mix would be largely regional, as there is no “one-cap-fits-all” solution. It is believed that the transition dynamics will be largely influenced by market balance, between demand, and supply, based on resource availability, investments, technology, and geopolitics as key enablers.
“By implication of the Energy Trilemma, energy sources and energy systems have become quite topical, and fossil fuels have come under very sharp criticism to become the subject of many environmental and geopolitical policy debates. Despite the global outcry, recent events have proven that the global energy system is very fragile and delicate as evident in the fall out of the unfortunate war between Russia and Ukraine. It was projected that fossil fuels will take a backstage, while renewables will take center stage. However, the recent disruptions in the energy systems have kept Fossil fuels squarely back in the game and I believe this has also given Nigeria a new vista of hope and perhaps another opportunity to take advantage of our God given natural resources.
“To satisfy the level of energy demand growth, it is expected that fossil fuels will continue to be dominant in the total energy consumed globally, with the balance in the energy mix coming from Renewables and Nuclear fission. This situation would speak to the Energy Trilemma with respect to needing more energy to meet the growing demand as well as balancing the sustainability priority of ensuring that whatever we do today in terms of our energy choices, we do not jeopardize the future existence of the next generation yet unborn.
“The energy transition and changes to energy mix would be largely regional, as there is no ‘one-cap-fits-all’ solution. It is believed that the transition dynamics will be largely influenced by market balance, between demand and supply, based on resource availability, investments, technology and geopolitics as key enablers.
“The world now needs it Clean, Affordable and Available in abundance. This is the basic philosophy of the Energy Trilemma in the ongoing Energy Transition. The Energy Trilemma, is about Energy Security, Energy Affordability and Energy Sustainability, which speaks to decarbonization, focusing on the environment and indeed climate change,” he said
A.I
Sept. 27, 2024
