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The socio-economic consequences of soaring unemployment are enormous and the policies so far put forward can barely make any meaningful impact in tackling the monster in the midst of coronavirus pandemic and the elusive promise of moving 100 million Nigerians out of poverty
By Anayo Ezugwu
WHEN President Muhammadu Buhari was campaigning for presidential elections in February 2015, one of his cardinal promises was to create three million jobs yearly. This was followed by another promise on June 12, 2019. Specifically, Buhari announced in his address on Democracy Day he would move 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years.
“This task is by no means unattainable. China has done it. India has done it. Indonesia has done it. Nigeria can do it. These are all countries characterised by huge burdens of population,” he said.
But five years down the line, unemployment and poverty in the country have gone from bad to worse with many Nigerians not knowing where the next meal will come from. For instance, the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, in its latest report showed that joblessness and poverty in the country worsened in the first six months of 2020, the highest the country has had in recent years.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s unemployment rate as of June 2020 is 27.1 percent, indicating that 27.1 percent of the country’s labour force is without job in the first half of the year, up from the 23.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018, while underemployment rate rose from 20.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018 to 28.6 percent.
The data showed that young people between 15 and 34 years had the highest rate of joblessness, which increased to 34.9 percent from 29.7 percent in third quarter of 2018, while their underemployment rate worsened to 28.2 percent from 25.7 percent in third quarter 2018 as more companies lay off their workers due to the impact of the COVID-19.
The breakdown of the unemployment statistics showed that the states with the highest unemployment rate are mostly oil-producing. On the other hand, the states with the lowest unemployment rate are predominantly in the northwest, which is plagued by insecurity. The lower unemployment rate in this region suggests increased migration. Unfortunately, some of these states had the highest level of poverty and inflation.
Anambra, Kwara, Sokoto, Zamfara and Ebonyi have the lowest unemployment. States with the highest poverty rate are Sokoto, Taraba, Jigawa, Ebonyi and Adamawa, while states with the highest inflation rate are Bauchi, Sokoto, Ebonyi, Plateau and Taraba.
The NBS report also indicated that the misery index in the country is now 68.26 percent, making Nigeria the 6th most miserable country in the world. The simplest explanation to the misery index is poverty. There is a consensus opinion that Nigerians are getting poorer and it is worth mentioning that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator, meaning that the impact is felt after the cycle has changed. Therefore, the unemployment rate could be much higher in subsequent quarters due to the COVID-induced economic paralysis.
Last year, PricewaterhouseCoopers, PwC, predicted a possible rise in Nigeria’s unemployment rate and slow economic growth. The predictions were contained in a report titled ‘Nigeria Economic Outlook Top 10 themes for 2019’, which examines Nigeria’s economic prospects in the year.
PwC predicted that the unemployment rate will “continue to trend upward even as the youth population expands rapidly with more than half of the population under the age of 30.” Following the release of the latest NBS report, Taiwo Oyedele, West Africa Tax Leader, PWC, said Nigeria was living in extraordinary times with the rising unemployment rate. He lamented that more than 15 million people previously in full-time employment are now either unemployed or underemployed.
The NBS in its report stated that out of 80 million labour force population (people qualified and willing to work), about 22 million are unemployed while 23 million are underemployed (working and earning below their potential).
As a result of this worrisome statistics, BudgIT, a civic organization, has said that Nigeria needs to invest in people mostly youth in order to address the rising unemployment in the country. In its latest report titled ‘It is time to invest in the people of Nigeria’ BudgIT said Nigeria’s economy is currently in a quagmire of economic challenges such as high inflation rate, illiteracy and poverty, among others.
It stated that Nigeria currently has 13.9 million unemployed youths, with just N300 million average investments in all tertiary institutions. “46 million Nigerians still practice open defecation, 70 percent of health expenses are paid from citizens’ pockets, while only three percent of the population has health insurance. It is clear that Nigeria needs sectoral financing reforms, investment in human capital development, equal access to capital by citizens, as well as firm and ethical leadership to rethink its non-oil exports and invest in the country’s local industry
“In our investing people report, we recommended 6 broad goals and 18 priority actions that would effectively end hunger, improve health and education, reduce inequality and spur economic growth in critical sectors and the Nigerian economy as a whole.
Nigeria cannot continue to play weakly in global competitiveness. The government needs to build inclusive growth by rebuilding its sub-national economies and investing in strong institutions to deliver results to citizens.”
Worried by these figures, Tunji Adepeju, financial consultant, said the unemployment rate could not but increase especially in 2019 and 2020. He said young people from 15 years to 64 years used by NBS had self-inflicted reasons for not being employed or under-employed.
He identified some of the reasons as preference for white-collar jobs in financial institutions, oil and gas and civil service. “Financial institutions are battling with bad loans arising from exposure to oil and gas companies that are under pressure from international market problems.
“Many states are in the state of bankruptcy following dwindling federal account monthly allocations and low internally generated revenue. “They do not have enough to settle emoluments of current staff, hence they may be unable to employ fresh people.
“Many Nigerians in the said age-grade consider the option of being Start-up Entrepreneurs too risky to venture into. The younger ones want quick money rather than work for a sustainable future. This leads them to other businesses that may not be captured by NBS,” he said.
Adepeju regretted that many Nigerian youths prefer to travel abroad seeking greener pastures where they could do odd jobs, which they considered degrading if offered the same opportunities in the country. He urged the unemployed people to go into agriculture and agri-business, adding that there were opportunities in value-addition to agricultural and mineral resources available in Nigeria
“It is better to be under-employed than being unemployed. So the currently unemployed should take up available jobs while searching for better opportunities,” he said.
To address this worrisome trend, the federal government is preparing to employ 774,000 Nigerians across the country under the Special Public Works, SPW, programme. The programme was part of the federal government’s intervention programmes and fiscal stimulus measures to help cushion the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Nigerians.
The initiative, which is expected to start on October 1 plans to employ 1,000 persons from each of the 774 local government areas in the country. Each of the beneficiaries of the programme will be paid N20,000 monthly to carry out public works. But the programme has been marred by the controversy between the members of the National Assembly and Festus Keyamo, minister state for labour and employment over the operations and processes of the programme.
– Aug. 21, 2020 @ 18:17 GMT |
Tags: Nigeria’s arduous task of tackling unemployment amidst coronavirus
