DaMina’s ‘VERITAS’ opaque election model signals neither PDP, nor APC will win 50%+1

NIGERIA’s main opposition party, the center-right Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and its leader former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, as well as third party minor candidates are enjoying a late surge in electoral support, but neither the government nor the opposition will likely win the required 50%+1 of the votes in the upcoming February 23 poll, according to DaMina Veritas.

The Nigerian Constitution requires that a president be elected with 50%+1 of the national vote, and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 federal states. The Nigerian constitution requires a runoff be held within seven days of the declaration of results if neither candidate wins an outright 50%+1.

“If Nigeria goes to a second-round vote in early March, the gubernatorial polls currently scheduled for March 9, will also have to be postponed. Nigeria is poised to have another six to eight weeks of intense capital markets volatility as the country, Africa’s most populous, elects a divided government for the first time in a generation.

It said that “a late surge in support for the opposition candidates following widespread middle class and professional dismay at the institutional incompetence of the electoral commission, the compromised credibility of the country’s Supreme Court, and the increased belligerence of the beleaguered regime has now likely tilted the upcoming polls in favor of the opposition, but not enough to win it a first round knockout victory.

“Before the postponement of the poll on 15th February, President Muhammadu Buhari, despite the woeful economic performance of his administration would have likely clinched a narrow victory on the basis of his widely admired incorruptibility. However, the chaos and incompetence of key institutions now on full display have compounded concerns about Buhari’s own economic incompetence, his inability to completely vanquish Boko Haram, superintend the national institutions, or arrest violent ranchers terrorizing farmers. A narrow majority of Nigerian voters may opt for the ‘corruptible competence’ of Abubakar over ‘the incorruptible incompetence’ of President Buhari.

“In current US dollar terms Nigeria’s overall GDP has shrunk by nearly 25% since Buhari took office in 2015.

The Nigerian capital markets are likely to see-saw until early April when it becomes clear the entire configuration of the new Nigerian parliament and executive.

“A potential victory by the center-right pro-business PDP may yet see the domestic Nigerian markets and currency rebound in anticipation of a pro-business neo-mercantilist agenda. Abubakar favors privatization of the country’s state oil company, a wholesale deregulation of the country’s energy sector and a decentralization of the country’s fiscal regime. Foreign companies who operate in Nigeria may soon see many of their locally owned competitors boosted with generous government subsidies and tax waivers for oligarch linked business groups who have backed Abubakar,” it said in a press release published on Febraury 20.

DaMina’s unique proprietary ‘VERITAS Frontier Markets Opaque Elections Model’ has previously accurately predicted the outcomes of close polls in several opaque frontier markets such as: Zambia, Papua New Guinea, Ghana, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Guinea and La Cote d’Ivoire. In 2015 the DaMina model predicted a Buhari win

DaMina’s unique proprietary ‘VERITAS Frontier Markets Opaque Elections Model’ has previously accurately predicted the outcomes of close polls in several opaque frontier markets such as: Zambia, Papua New Guinea, Ghana, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Guinea and La Cote d’Ivoire. In 2015 the DaMina model predicted a Buhari win.

– Feb. 22, 2019 @ 13:09 GMT |