Sports
Are games between local rivals really harder to predict? Chris Sutton will find out this weekend, with derbies taking place in north London, Manchester and the east Midlands.
BBC Sport’s football expert Sutton said: “I made my mind up that I am going to pick a side to win each time – I don’t want to be accused of sitting on the fence.
“One of the three games is very easy to call as far as I am concerned – but with the other two it is far harder to say who will come out on top.”
Sutton is picking scores for every top-flight game this season against a variety of guests.
For this weekend’s fixtures, he is up against Sports Team drummer Al Greenwood, who is a Manchester United fan.
Sport Team’s new album Gulp! came out on 23 September. They start a UK tour in October.
As well as drumming and following United’s fortunes, Greenwood is a keen footballer herself and says it is “brilliant” to see interest in the women’s game continue to grow on the back of England’s triumph at last summer’s European Championship.
The opening two weekends of the Women’s Super League (WSL) have seen individual and combined attendance records broken. Arsenal are the new holders of the league attendance record after 47,367 fans watched them beat arch-rivals Tottenham 4-0 at Emirates Stadium on Saturday.
Greenwood is involved in promoting women’s football herself – as part of the InMotion creative collective – she has worked with Arsenal and the England women’s teams. Their video was used by the Lionesses for their squad announcement for the Euros.
“It’s taken a while to get the coverage it deserves, but women’s football has now got the platform it deserves,” Greenwood told BBC Sport.
“I think it’s down to all sorts of factors coming together to build and grow the game over the past few years, to get it to where it is now.
“Hard work and investment has helped to improve its profile – for example with more games shown live on TV and being played at men’s stadiums – and then there is the effect of professionalism on the pitch, bringing higher standards.
“There have been a lot of small hurdles, but they are all coming down. The WSL has got its own superstars now, names that everyone recognises and also people who fans can feel they have got a connection to.
“Suddenly you’ve got the same nuance that the men’s game has got, where everyone is familiar with the players – the different characters, and the heroes and the villains – and it becomes a much richer experience as a fan.
“So much has changed, and England winning the Euros was the culmination of a lot of that work, but it was never going to stop there.
“You can see the effect that success has had on the crowds at women’s games, and it is such an exciting time all round.”
| Premier League predictions – week 8 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Result | Sutton | Al | |
| SATURDAY | |||
| Arsenal v Tottenham | x-x | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Bournemouth v Brentford | x-x | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Crystal Palace v Chelsea | x-x | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Fulham v Newcastle | x-x | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Liverpool v Brighton | x-x | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Southampton v Everton | x-x | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| West Ham v Wolves | x-x | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| SUNDAY | |||
| Man City v Man Utd | x-x | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Leeds v Aston Villa | x-x | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| MONDAY | |||
| Leicester v Nott’m Forest | x-x | 2-1 | 2-0 |
A correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth 10 points. The exact score earns 40 points.
SUTTON’S PREDICTIONS
Games kick off at 15:00 BST unless otherwise stated
SATURDAY
Arsenal v Tottenham (12:30 BST)
Arsenal have started the season so well, winning six out of seven league games. Their one defeat came at Manchester United, and they didn’t deserve to lose there.
Tottenham are only a point behind them, though. Yes, they have been slightly fortunate with some of their results, but that just shows they don’t have to play well to win.
Spurs also have Son Heung-min up and running after his hat-trick off the bench against Leicester before the international break. Son is in my Fantasy team, so I was really angry when he was dropped – but then changed my mind when he came on. It was a masterclass from Antonio Conte to wait and bring him on.
You could make a case for either team here, but my gut feeling is to go with Arsenal – and for there to be lots of goals.
It’s at Emirates Stadium, and I think the Gunners will take the game to Tottenham.
Spurs like that, because they are at their very best on the counter-attack, but I think Arsenal will get at them.
Sutton’s prediction: 3-2
Al’s prediction: Arsenal will be looking to replicate their women’s performance against Spurs last weekend – and the result as well. I would back Mikel Arteta’s side to win too, because although Tottenham are also doing well, their performances haven’t always matched their results. 2-1
Bournemouth v Brentford
I’ve been getting a bit of stick from Bournemouth fans because I write them off every week, and they are now unbeaten in their past three games.
They impressed me by how resolute they were against Newcastle last time out, but I am going to write them off again here and, if you support the Cherries, you should be happy about that because they keep proving me wrong.
Brentford were disappointing against Arsenal in their last game, but I think they will respond here.
I don’t see there being many goals in this one, but Bees striker Ivan Toney might feel he has a point to prove because he was not unleashed by England against Italy or Germany, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he got the winner.
Sutton’s prediction: 0-1
Al’s prediction: This one is very difficult to call and I changed my mind a few times – but I do think Bournemouth will get something. 1-1
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
I don’t really know what to expect from Chelsea here, and whether anything will click at all or change dramatically in Graham Potter’s first league game in charge.
It is going to take time for him to mould them into his team, doing what he wants to see.
But what we do know is that, so far this season, too many Chelsea players have not been at the level required, and that has to change.
Crystal Palace will make things difficult for them but I think we will see an improvement from the Blues, and it might be enough for them to edge this.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Al’s prediction: Palace are hard to break down, but they don’t really offer enough of a threat at the other end. Graham Potter seems to have made a big difference at Chelsea already and with the boost he has given their players, I kind of have to back them here. 1-3
Fulham v Newcastle
Newcastle aren’t on a particularly good run and have only won once this season, but I like the way they play and they have deserved more from a couple of games they have drawn so far.
But the Magpies might be short up front here, with Alexander Isak definitely out, Callum Wilson on his way back from injury and Chris Wood picking up a knock on international duty.
So, I am going for a draw here. Being honest, Fulham have surprised me with the way they have started this season so well and they have a bit of confidence in defence as well as their attack. They clearly believe in the way they play.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Al’s prediction: Aleksandar Mitrovic has been brilliant this season and I reckon he will bag a couple more goals against his old team. Newcastle have not really got going yet, either. 2-1
Liverpool v Brighton
Brighton had a good record here under Potter, with a draw and a win in their past two visits, but this is our first look at them under new boss Roberto De Zerbi.
He’s got a reputation for being an attack-minded manager, but will he really try that at Anfield? That would be very brave, but I would love to see it.
Liverpool made an extremely flat start to the season so maybe the pause in the season following the death of Queen Elizabeth II and then the international break came at a good time for Reds boss Jurgen Klopp.
October is an extremely busy month for the Reds, with nine games in total, and playing so often might just help them to get their rhythm back.
I am backing them to start that process here, and get the month off to a winning start – although it won’t be straightforward.
Sutton’s prediction: 3-1
Al’s prediction: Liverpool have been very up and down so far, but we don’t really know what to expect from Brighton under De Zerbi. It’s going to be interesting to find out what they are like. 1-1
Southampton v Everton
I don’t really know what to make of Southampton. They sometimes play with blood and thunder under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but other times they don’t seem to attack very much at all.
Everton have been better recently but, along with Newcastle they are the draw specialists in the Premier League this season, and I can see the points being shared again here.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Al’s prediction: I can see why both of these teams are in the bottom half of the table – they are both so inconsistent. 1-0
West Ham v Wolves (17:30)
Diego Costa could make his Wolves debut here, but I think we have to be realistic about what to expect from him.
This isn’t the Costa we saw at Chelsea, at the peak of his powers. He is 33 now and has not played a competitive game this year.
Wolves frustrate me because they are a really good team that just doesn’t score enough goals. I could be wrong, but I don’t see Costa changing that.
West Ham are not exactly prolific either, but I think they deserve more points than they’ve picked up so far and this could be the day where their luck turns.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-0
Al’s prediction: Both teams have only scored three times apiece in their first seven league games, so there won’t be many goals in this one! 0-1
SUNDAY
Man City v Man Utd (14:00 BST)
For all the positivity about Manchester United’s progress under Erik ten Hag, they are playing Manchester City – who are the best team in the country and by far the best team in Manchester.
We saw Arsenal created chances against United in their last league game, but failed to take them.
If City play anywhere near as well as they can do, they will do the same – and they won’t miss.
United could cause them problems on the counter, but a more likely scenario is that they are going to get pumped.
Sutton’s prediction: 4-1
Al’s prediction: We have beaten City at Etihad Stadium a few times in the past couple of years, which suggests we’ve got a chance this time – but going there still fills me with a little bit of dread. We have a chance though, and the way we will set up to hit them on the break is a way of getting at City, so I am going for a highly optimistic victory. 1-2
Al on United’s upturn in form: I’m enjoying it! As a United fan in the post-Sir Alex Ferguson era [since 2013], I’ve lost any delusions of grandeur. I’d love to see us vying to reach the Champions League final and going for the Premier League title again but, to be honest, at the moment for me it is more about seeing our players turn up properly for games, and playing with a bit of heart of soul.
It is early days but it seems like Ten Hag has been able to develop that, which is a really good sign, and we have a bit of fight in us again. You can tell a lot by sitting in the stands and what I want is to go to games and have fans around me in the stadium excited about the team. That has not always been the case in the past few years, but my dad goes to Old Trafford week in, week out, and he says there is palpable shift in expectation.
Leeds v Aston Villa (16:30 BST)
Leeds boss Jesse Marsch won’t be in the dugout after his red card against Brentford last month.
His side will still play with the same great intensity though, and Elland Road always seems to lift them. At home is where you feel it is going to happen for them.
Villa got a big win over Southampton last time, but their results on the road so far have been poor, with three defeats out of three, and I don’t see that changing here.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-1
Al’s prediction: This should be a really good game. Leeds always seem to go for it and whether it is good or bad, there is always something happening. Villa will sit back more, but if Leeds score early then it could really open up. 3-2
MONDAY
Leicester v Nottingham Forest (20:00 BST)
These are the bottom two teams and really anything could happen here. It’s hard to back either side to win it, because we know about their flaws.
Leicester actually played quite well at times against Tottenham in their last game, but they just cannot defend – whether it is from set-pieces or open play.
There was a lot of talk about Foxes boss Brendan Rodgers losing his job during the international break on the back of that 6-2 defeat but he survived, and I can’t see them sacking him even if Leicester lose this game too.
It wouldn’t make any sense to get rid of him now, rather than during a break in the campaign when a new manager has got a bit of time to bed things in, but things need to improve before the season stops for the World Cup in mid-November, because that is an obvious time for struggling clubs to change their manager.
Forest keep losing too, but I have massive sympathy for their manager Steve Cooper because of the amount of change there has been to his squad.
Cooper is going to need time for his new-look team to gel and, in the meantime, they are going to find it tough.
I do think Forest will score here – Leicester just can’t keep a clean sheet – but I think the Foxes will edge it, and get a much-needed win.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-1
Al’s prediction: We know Leicester are a good team but they have been really poor so far. Sometimes it takes a derby game like this to kickstart your season. King Power Stadium will be rocking and if any game is going to get their squad focused again, you would think it would be this one.
Chris Sutton and Al Greenwood were speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.
How did Sutton do last week?
Wolves’ failure to score against Manchester City stopped Sutton getting a draw with Editors bassist Russell Leetch.
Sutton and Leetch both got four correct results from the seven matches that were played but Leetch correctly predicted City would win 3-0 at Molineux, meaning he wins 70-40 – for now. Sutton went for a 3-1 City win.
Three games were postponed – Brighton v Crystal Palace, Manchester United v Leeds and Chelsea v Liverpool. Any points from those matches will be added to Sutton or Leetch’s totals when they are played.
Leetch is going for a 2-0 Palace win, a 2-1 Manchester United victory and a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge.
For now, though, it goes down as another defeat for Sutton.
| Ali Bruce-Ball | 110 |
| GK from Bad Boy Chiller Crew, Serge Pizzorno, Russell Leetch | 70 |
| Ross MacDonald from The 1975 | 60 |
| Chris Sutton (average after seven weeks) | 59 |
| Tom from Dry Cleaning | 40 |
| Juice Menace | 20 |
| Total scores after week 7 | |
|---|---|
| Guests | 440 |
| Chris Sutton | 410 |
How did you get on?
Chris and Russell weren’t the only people who – wrongly – thought Newcastle would beat Bournemouth, because 89% of you did too.
But the only other game you called incorrectly was Everton’s win over West Ham. While 29% of you did predict a Toffees victory, 34% thought the Hammers would prevail.
A weekend of shock results hit your scores as well as those of Chris and his guest – you got only three results correct.
Manchester City’s draw with Aston Villa was the game that caught the most people out, with 89% expecting a win for Pep Guardiola’s side.
| You vs Chris & the guests – week 7 | |
|---|---|
| Position | Correct results |
| 1. You* | 5/7 |
| =2. Chris | 4/7 |
| =2. Russell Leetch | 4/7 |
*Win, draw, loss prediction based on highest % of vote for each match.
| Total scores after week 7 | |
|---|---|
| 1. You* | 34/67 |
| 2. Chris | 32/67 |
| 3. Guests | 30/67 |
Culled from BBC SPORT
C.E
Tags: Chris Sutton
