6th Tana Forum, Featured
There is little or no change in the state of peace and security in Africa in 2016 as the overall number of conflict and violent events stood at 17,539, only two more than the previous year
| By Maureen Chigbo, reporting from Bahir Dar, Ethiopia |
IS Africa making progress in checking the outbreak of violence in the continent? Going by the statistics provided by Olusegun Obasanjo, former president of Nigeria and chairperson of Tana High Level Forum on Security in Africa, there was little or no change in the number of conflicts and violence that have taken place in the continent between 2015 and 2016.
In 2016, the overall number of conflict and violent events in Africa stood at 17,539; only two more than in the previous year even though their cumulative intensity and impacts remained dangerously high. Obasanjo stated this while making a presentation entitled: “State of Peace and Security in Africa 2017: Little or No Change” at the 6th Tana Forum on Natural Resource Governance in Africa which held in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, on April 22.
According to him, in 2016, the number of large scale wars and field battles either stagnated or declined while the continent witnessed an implosion in the number of non-state conflict agents such as militias, vigilantes, violent extremist groups and spontaneous movements (protesters) vis-à-vis the intensity of violence they perpetrate.
During the period, countries like Libya, Somalia, South Sudan and Nigeria that have experienced long-standing violent conflicts also recorded the highest number of conflict events; with the four mentioned accounting for one-thirds of all violent conflict on the continent during the same year, slightly decreasing from 35 percent and 40 percent in 2015 and 2014, respectively;
Also, in 2016, Africa witnessed a marked change in the character of armed conflict and violence as they became more diffused and dispersed with the spread of mass protests and militia activities.
The numbers of so-called ‘low-intensity’ conflicts or ‘quasi-war’ situations in 2016, increased as witnessed in Mozambique, Burundi, Cameroon, Nigeria, the DRC, Northern Mali, and those along border regions throughout the Sahel region where the writ of the state is minimal or non-existent. Unfortunately, due to scanty media coverage those equally deadly episodes of internecine violent rooted in unresolved or badly managed historical-political grievances mostly escaped public attention;
It was also a year of multiple riots, protests and socio-political anomies, with a 5percent increase over the previous with outbreaks in Tunisia, South Africa, Ethiopia, Mali, Gabon, Cameroon, Chad and the Gambia, to mention a few. Sadly, those popular expressions witnessed where matched by the growing securitisation of protests as many governments embarked on crackdowns, arbitrary arrests and detentions, shutdown of communication systems, to mention a few.
The year 2016 witnessed a marked decline in reported cases of rape and gender-based violence in the DRC as well as in countries such as Sudan, South Sudan, CAR and the DRC. It also witnessed the highest number of migrants’ death in the Mediterranean with the number of casualties and missing persons from the multitude seeking to cross into Europe through North Africa, especially from Libya, topping 5,098; or 35 percent above the 2015 levels. On average, to quote the UNHCR, 14 people die every single day in 2016 trying to cross the treacherous waters of the Mediterranean.
Also, the scale of human fatalities from multiple sources that included those from organised armed conflict events was estimated at 30,000, a decrease by 6,000 from the previous year’s levels in 2016. Even at that, civilians continued to be targeted or caught in crossfires to the extent that violence against civilians across the continent increased for the second year in a row to 45 percent, up by three percentage points from 2014 levels.
From the above, Obasanjo drew out “three unmistakable points about the peace and security challenges that Africa faced in 2016: (1) Conflicts is a ‘wicked’ problem; (2) Violence in and outside of formal armed conflicts is the real problem; and (3) From Africa Rising to ‘Africans Rising.’”
“I recollect my speech at this same podium last year where I drew your attention to the dangerous resurgence of old conflicts across the continent. Sad to say, my conclusions then are still relevant today to the extent that some of the issues, problems and predictions made then have become self-fulfilling prophesies.
“My intent is not to celebrate them as prophecies but return to them as a way of redirecting our attention to the complex realities of managing and resolving seemingly intractable Africa’s security challenges. By returning to then, also, I hope we can better grasp the enduring impacts of the structural weaknesses that underlie much of the old conflicts and security challenges facing Africa.
“In 2016, there was neither movement nor motion towards peace in major theatres of conflicts such as Libya, Mali, Sudan, South Sudan, Central Africa Republic, to name a few. Across board, several genuine peace and reconciliation efforts were thwarted by several failed attempts to implement peace agreements, continued belligerency among actors, and the absence of political will,” he said.
According to him, “much more than any other conflict in 2016, that in Africa’s newest country- South Sudan- made the headlines for the wrong reasons. In my view, South Sudan is a poster example of the ‘wicked’ nature of the peace and security challenges Africa faces, with some of the narrowest scope for peace and security in the immediate term.” He illustrated this point further by recalling how political tensions and inter-ethnic acrimony escalated into full-scale violence in Juba, the capital, following armed clashes between the SPLM government forces and SPLM-IO troops in July 2016.
The forced exit of Vice President Riek Machar from Juba, he said, triggered new rounds of clashes and bloodletting that setback the implementation of the August 2015 peace agreement brokered by IGAD. “The immediate trigger was the deadlock over plans by the government to change from the 10-provinces plan contained in the peace agreement to a 28 state structure, but even that is rooted in historically fault-lines and structural blind-spots in the character of the conflict, the nature of peace agreements and the current approaches and priorities of mediation and conflict resolution activities in Africa.
Sadly, there are other pockets of low-level violent contestations among local communities over ownership of land and identities, boundaries delimitation, land grabbing, and dwindling access to grazing compounded by lingering effects of adverse climate change and limited adaptive capacities. The collapse of South Sudan’s economy in 2016 further increased social tensions and dampened the prospects of peace. The latest fighting quickly led to the internal displacement of 1.6million persons, with another one million or more scattering as refugees across neighbouring countries to the extent that the overall number of people facing risk of food insecurity to over 4.8million.
Obasanjo recalled that in previous editions of the Tana Forum, the geography of violence was recognised as one of emerging concern in Africa. There was a greater evidence of this in 2016 as armed violence is no longer the preserve of fragile and conflict-affected states but also a more frequent occurrence in supposedly stable and middle-income countries that were previously supposed to be immune. In that year alone, there were several cases of ‘low-intensity’ or ‘quasi-war’ situations in areas farther from major capitals, cities and towns where civilians and their livelihoods were routinely targeted and disrupted. Notable examples include Mozambique, Burundi, Cameroon, Nigeria, DRC, Northern Mali, and border regions across the Sahel.
However, the chairperson of Tana said that that it was not all about chaos and setbacks during the past year but also one of several positive vibes. In that year, Africa reached several key milestones in managing insecurity and resolving conflicts. Notwithstanding, the scale of violence and collateral fatalities, African states and institutions such as the African Union, AU and RECs were active in preventing, de-escalating and forging politically negotiated solutions to violence and conflict situations.
In Gabon, Burundi, Libya, Sudan and recently, the Gambia, the prospect of open armed confrontation or surge in the scale and intensity of violent clashes was averted or moderated through proactive mediation and political settlement initiatives. African states and institutions were able to develop and use strategies and approaches to preventing and managing conflict and security challenges that were consistent with the historical, social, political and institutional realities of African states. As the President of the ECOWAS Commission rightly noted regarding the Gambia, for instance, “[The] operations… took place without shedding of blood, without any casualty, and without any foreign intervention whatsoever. This is a clear indication that Africa can face her own challenges and find solutions to her problems.” A true example of African solution to African problem,” he said.
According to him, “Despite what some might regard as political stalemate in Burundi, AU engagements still recorded major breakthroughs that should be given credence, including the acceptance to establish an Inter-Burundian Dialogue, with the consent of Bujumbura. That decision paved way to double the number of human rights observers in the country to 200 and to restart dialogue with opposition groups.
“I believe that the AU and EAC engagements, if given the attention it deserves, are capable of easing the political temperature in Burundi and becoming the foundation for a viable political settlement in the medium- and long-terms. It should not come as a surprise that in spite of the volatile political and security conditions worsened by the dire humanitarian situation, Burundi recorded a decrease in the number of conflict events from 847 in 2015 to 784 in 2016 just as conflict-related fatalities dropped by 56 %.”
Other cases of progress in conflict resolution efforts include the one in the DRC where a peace deal was reaches between the ruling party under the central government and opposition groups over a new timeline for elections in 2017, the composition of a transitional cabinet and the continued stay in power until elections of President Kabila. But it is not Uhuru yet in DRC. DRC situation must be on the watch list”, he said.
In Somalia, he said negotiations involving Somaliland, Khatumo state, and Pundtland over contested provinces has commenced in earnest. Several ceasefire and peace deal agreements have been reached leading to the withdrawal of armed militias from contested areas. It was in the face of an empire of odds that the country recently held its first nationwide general elections in decades and a new government formed.
“Let us also not forget that it took the governments of Sudan and South Sudan many false starts to sign a new peace deal focusing on financial issues, security measures and border demarcation. The deal has now paved the way for the reduction in oil transmission fees, resumption of trade and transport, renewed commitments to halt support to armed groups, redeployment of joint military forces along the Demilitarised Border Zone, reopening of border posts and crossings, and the establishment of direct communication between the two countries,” he said.
There were further signs across Africa of strategic containment- and in some cases, of actual rollback- of the presence of violent extremist groups. In 2016, the threats posed by violent extremist groups such as the Boko Haram Movement, Al Shabaab, and AQIM were either neutralised or reduced. By the end of that year, majority of the continent’s violent extremist groups experienced one or more of the following: the loss of territory and constricting spaces to operate, degraded capability to undertake ‘audacious’ and high-profile attacks, loss of fighters, collapsed or limited support base and fighting infrastructures, etc. They have now reduced their activities to the launch of sporadic guerrilla attacks using improvised explosive devices, IEDs, and suicide bombings targeting ‘soft’ civilian targets such as hotels, schools, markets, and social functions.
Also, he observed that the Sahel corridor appears to buck the trend described, though, with less evidence of containment or rollback in Northern Mali and border communities in Mauritania, Niger and Algeria where violent extremist groups appear to have expanded their operational perimeter into Central and Southern Mali, and in Niger, Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire. “We must not ignore, also, the home truth that our best of efforts have neither extinguished extremism nor diminished their potent appeal to young Africans. We are, invariably, left with a difficult and ominous paradox; that of winning the minds presenting us with a greater challenge than winning the war”.
Finally, he said that “Africa must prepare itself to handle and solve most of its problems by itself in a world of rising populism, inward-looking and diminishing liberalism. This means cooperation, integration, and experience-sharing with common security, common prosperity, stability, cohesion, equality, justice, development and growth.”
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