Opinion
By Ike Abonyi
“THE strength of a democracy is not measured by the strength of its government, but by the strength of its opposition-_ Mahatma Gandhi.
If by any political design, you find yourself in opposition to a President who has stayed long in opposition before getting power and who believes that power is not served ala carte but should be grabbed and run, you must have your sleeves permanently rolled up for around the clock work to survive your opposing role.
Most political pundits long predicted correctly that Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as President, is going to be underwhelming in the delivery of good governance but will certainly overwhelm all in the politics of it.
Political watchers of the twenty-month tenure of President Tinubu cannot agree less with that prognosis. In the area of politics, the President has even surpassed his expectations. To leave no one in doubt that politics rather than governance was going to drive his regime, he put his hands into all controversial issues to ensure that at any given time, the populace was preoccupied with politics and personal survival while he carried out his agenda.
He ensured that all political parties were put on life support and technically denied politicians any platform to vent their feelings about his administration. As a result, most politicians are looking for survival and are indirectly at the mercy of the sole owner of the food bowl who also determines the course you get. That’s why all roads are leading to the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC by elected and unelected politicians in the country. If you call these defectors Jobbers you may not be wrong.
The normal political reading is to witness an exodus away from an underperforming political party so as not to lose out as the ship sinks, but here we are watching to see that the more the ruling APC fails to make any positive impact in governance, the more people strangely flood to them. The reason for such preposterousness in our polity is not far-fetched; elections never count, and hardly is the electorate’s disposition a factor. Instead, the man in office has absolute power of life and death. In such circumstances, it’s inconsiderate political speaking to wait for freshwater from a non-running tap.
It’s an agreed fact in all democratic parlance that strong opposition is a necessity as it not only strengthens the polity but goes a long way to put the ruling class on their toes.
Where opposition is weak democracy is bound to be inadequate and frail. For true democrats interested in delivering good governance to the people, strong opposition is an inevitable partner and a helper in prompting performance. But for a handicapped regime, strong opposition is not just a political enemy but a huge obstacle that must be crushed or clogged for them to exist.
When you see the President doffing his cap for the most unpopular and controversial character in his cabinet, Nyesom Wike, it’s more for his political role than his performance in governance.
For Tinubu’s politics now and in the future, Wike is the most important character. His critical role in Tinubu’s political re-engineering makes him a more utility ally to the President than even the National Chairman of the President’s ruling party. So long as Wike can hold down the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, so long will the President be doffing his hat for him. It’s immaterial how the people, especially Abuja residents or the opposition PDP, are feeling about him.
Politically speaking, Wike is like that pivotal bouncer who prevents the public from swarming on his principal. Wike is like that utility aide in the King’s palace who shields him from hearing the disturbing and often misanthropic and inimical noise of those he is ruling. Undoubtedly, Wike is not just a political doorman to Tinubu but ostensibly his man-friday.
Politics is the most important thing as far as this government is concerned. Anybody who is not contributing adequately to enhance the desired politicking is not likely to be too relevant in the equation. It’s for these facts, as highlighted above, that the election of 2027 is more dominant in the politics of the country today than anything else.
The political significance of 2025 that we entered into yesterday is, therefore, due to its strategic importance in determining the life and operations of 2027. What is going to happen this year, 2025, is largely going to design the outcome of 2027., It can even be safe to say that 2025 will be the determinant of 2027 as it is going to decisively sway the nation’s political activities by 2027. The ordinary explanation of a determinant is that it’s an element that identifies the nature of something or that fixes or conditions an outcome. It’s a term more used in mathematical formulations. It was French Mathematician Augustin-Louis Cauchy in 1812 who used ‘determinant’ in its modern sense. Cauchy’s work is the most complete of the early works on determinants. He reproved the earlier results and gave new results of his own on minors and adjoints.
But for this week’s conversation, a determinant is a factor or cause that makes something happen or leads directly to a decision. A lot of what will happen In Nigeria in 2027 will be dependent on what plays out in 2025.
If President Tinubu, with all his jigsaws, trial and error governance style, scales through 2025 and stabilizes, 2027 might be a free ride for him as the man holding the literary knife and yam. Not because he will ever enjoy the electoral support of Nigerian voters but because he would possess an enormous arsenal to bulldoze his way aided by greedy and gullible political elites and corrupt INEC and security officials.
The year 2025 is also a make or mar year for the opposition to get their acts together or forget the dream of Aso Rock.
Never in the history of Nigeria’s electoral management, not even in 2015, has a ruling party’s misdemeanor been such a helper for an opposition.
But for the opposition to maximize these ruling party’s transgressions, it has to unite and confront the 2027 year aggressively and purposefully. The year 2025 is, therefore, very crucial for the opposition as they are already running behind schedule. Their coordination is not impressive and they have 2025 to show Nigerians that they are ready and willing to rescue the country from the wealthy gang holding it.
The year 2025 is indeed a crucial year for the opposition in Nigeria. With the 2027 presidential elections looming, the opposition parties, particularly the Labour Party (LP), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), will need to regroup and re-strategize to challenge the ruling APC. The LP, with its impressive performance in the 2023 elections, has a unique opportunity to capitalize on its recent gains and build a strong coalition. However, the party’s lack of godfather support and internal divisions may hinder its progress The opposition has 2025 to get organized ahead of 2027. As we enter 2025 the LP, PDP, and NNPP are all grappling with internal conflicts, which may weaken their ability to form a united front against the APC. They are already experiencing a surge in defections, with lawmakers and governors potentially switching to the APC. The cause of this deluge of defections, aside from the greed and inordinate ambition of the elected ones, is the lack of Ideological clarity, even though where they are headed is worse because APC remains a gang of political power grabbers not based on any ideological understanding. The opposition parties have struggled to articulate a clear ideology, which may make it difficult for them to differentiate themselves from the APC except for individual leaders like Peter Obi, who is standing out with a clear message that sounds virgin and enticing to a cross-section of the populace, especially the youths.
They have this year, 2025, to build a Strong Coalition, a formidable platform that can challenge the APC. This they can do effectively by capitalizing on APC’s obvious weakness. The opposition can exploit the APC’s vulnerabilities, such as its handling of the economy and security issues as well as the divisive leadership style. They have 2025 to mobilize Public Support by articulating a clear vision for Nigeria’s future and providing alternative solutions to the country’s myriad of problems compounded by the Tinubu regime.
Ultimately, 2025 will be a make-or-mar year for the opposition in Nigeria. If they can overcome their internal challenges and build a strong, united front, they may be able to pose a credible challenge to the APC in the 2027 elections. That is what makes 2025 a crucial year for the opposition going forward to 2027. Indisputably, the global face of opposition is Africa’s Nelson Mandela, who captured it aptly that, “A strong opposition is essential to a healthy democracy, as it provides a check on the power of the ruling party and ensures that the government is accountable to the people.” God help us.
2nd January, 2025.
C.E.
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