Africa
Perhaps, it is too late for thousands of Hispanics and Nigerians who routed for President Donald Trump during the US elections to withdraw their support. They have to live with the bitter consequences of their choice for four years, including mass deportation
Goddy Ikeh
IT is obvious that the return of President Donald Trump to the White House will have its effects globally. And in Nigeria some of the supporters will soon start counting their gains or losses. Already for the US and its neighbours, about 500 illegal immigrants had been deported to their countries, while Africans are preparing to receive their friends and relations, who are also illegal immigrants in the US.
Some Nigerian diplomats and experts in foreign affairs have not hidden their expectations from the administration of President Trump. For instance, a retired Nigerian diplomat, who served in the United States, Mr. Joe Keshi said: “Several world leaders would be strategising on how best to deal with Donald Trump in the next four years.”
“America has a global influence and most world leaders must find a way to work with him. The truth of the matter is that it’s going to be a stormy four years,” he warned
For the former minister of foreign affairs, Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, he believes that Trump’s presidency will not favour Nigeria and Africa and advised President Bola Tinubu to be wary of adopting a confrontational approach to issues involving President Trump.
“That’s the advice I will give President Tinubu: try and avoid having a confrontation with him even if that means that he does things that annoy or does things that step on the interests of Nigeria. There are ways in which you could address his reaction without confrontation,” he stated.
For some Nigerians, what President Trump is currently doing is not different from his campaign promises. It will be recalled that some of the Executive Orders he signed on the day of his inauguration will affect Nigeria and its economy adversely. For instance, his global anti green energy and promotion of oil drilling with his “Drill, baby, drill” mantra may harm the Nigerian energy sector, which will affect international oil market and result in lower oil prices. This development will lead to disruptions in the execution of the 2025 Nigerian budget, which is pegged at crude oil price of $75 per barrel.
Reacting to Trump’s energy policy and other political issues, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Muda Yusuf, noted that Trump’s sweeping policy on promoting oil drilling in the US and his drive for more investments will impact global oil supply, which will translate to lower oil prices and will result in low crude oil revenues for Nigeria.
According to him, though it will impact Nigeria’s oil revenues negatively, but it may also lead to low energy prices and therefore favour some Nigerian businesses.
On the plan by Trump to establish an “External Revenue Service” that will collect tariffs on goods imported from other countries, this policy will no doubt affect global trade and goods from Nigeria and other African countries will not be exempted. However, some financial experts believe that these policies will affect the diaspora remittances which the Central Bank of Nigeria had put the proceeds at $4.22 billion between January and October 2024.
Meanwhile, local media reports has quoted the Chairman, of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, as saying that the external revenue service announced by Trump could disrupt global trade.
“During his inauguration, Trump made true his plan for external revenue service. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we introduce tariff and tax other countries to enrich our citizens. For this purpose, we are establishing the External Revenue Service to collect all tariffs, duties, and revenues.
“This move could disrupt international trade and further complicate the already complex global tax system, highlighting the importance of our ongoing tax reforms,” Oyedele stated on his X handle.
Another worry for some Nigerian analysts is Trump’s stance on the African Growth and Opportunity Act, AGOA, which has helped to raise Nigeria’s bilateral trade with the United States to over $10.6 billion. The concern is that Trump can abolish the scheme or modify it so that it will not be as effective as it is when the programme is reviewed later this year.
However, the announcement of the freeze on almost all new funding for foreign assistance programmes by the US with exceptions for allies such as Israel and Egypt, has a troubling impact on the Nigerian health sector. According to some health experts, this development poses a serious challenge to the health sector and that Nigerian officials should quickly explore alternative sources to fill the gap created by the donor fund. This freeze will no doubt pose a serious challenge to the health programmes of the government.
According to the report by the Guardian newspaper, Nigeria has always been among the top eight priority countries on the U.S. foreign assistance list. The report noted that foreign assistance from the US in 2024 amounted to $370 million in health funding; $310 million in humanitarian aid; $35 million went into administrative cost; $24 million on education; agriculture got $7.8 million and $7.4 was spent on other concerns.
It added that the U.S. Diplomatic Missions in Nigeria, in its 2024 report, provided some details about assistance to different sectors of Nigeria’s economy as follows:
• U.S. committed over $767m to Nigeria in 2024; $1.16b in 2022
• $370m went to health funding; $310m for humanitarian aid in 2024
• U.S. malaria intervention covers over 2.2 million; 13m girls on HPV vaccines
The report also noted that the recent executive order by President Donald Trump halting foreign aid for 90 days may cost Nigeria an average of $1 billion in health and other humanitarian interventions yearly if sustained. In addition, the foreign assistance policy of the US has traditionally raked in significant aid to Nigeria, with the highest sum of $1.16 billion spent in 2022, and $767 million in 2024.
Apart from the US assistance in the health sector, the report also said that in the economic sector, the U.S. closed seven deals worth $1.5 billion through Prosper Africa, creating jobs and expanding Nigeria’s economy. This is just as American aid helped students to access $30 million in scholarships, while over 3.6 million teaching and learning materials were delivered to classrooms nationwide.
On the security front, the U.S. provided $40 million in military security assistance to Nigeria in 2024 and trained 60 members of the Nigerian military at professional military schools in America. The United States, in partnership with the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, also deployed early warning software to quickly identify and address emerging conflicts in the region.
Furthermore, over $50 million was allocated for criminal justice and civilian security reforms, expanding legal aid services to over 5,000 Nigerians in courts and correctional centres. The United States support also provided farmers with over $55 million in agriculture-related financing.
The newspaper also stated that a Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, NIIA, Prof. Femi Otubanjo, made a distinction between countries that are reliant on aids and those that receive them as supplementary resources.
According to Prof. Otunbanjo, many countries do not depend on the US for sustenance, noting that from his last fact check, Nigeria received about $1.1 billion in humanitarian aid in Donald Trump’s last tenure, which is not significant in terms of the national needs of the country.
He explained that giving aids to other countries is an instrument of friendship used to develop and consolidate relationships. “So if by any chance the aid is removed, you are undermining your own influence,” he said.
“Then it becomes that the country is not reliable. You cannot depend on it and it also affects your perception and friendship of that country,” he said.
Otubanjo stressed that Trump is a transactional president, who seeks to identify benefits to transactions or actions.
“He sees it almost as a balance of trade relationship, that whatever they give you, you will be able to get more back. Whereas giving aids is not like that. You are not expecting anything back beyond goodwill and friendship,” he added.
Perhaps, it is time for Nigeria and other African countries to begin to look inwards for solutions to their sustainable development challenges and increase their trade relations since Trump’s America First has little or no plans to assist them.
A.I
Jan. 29, 2025
