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Dignitaries at the Sixth Anniversary Lecture of Realnews individually agree that the 2019 general elections in Nigeria must be credible bearing in mind the political and economic implications
By Olu Ojewale
It was another celebration time at Realnews magazine, Thursday, November 15. The magazine clocked six years old on the day. Rather than rolling out the drums and holding a lavish party, Realnews in its traditional way, gathered together an array of intellectuals, diplomats, professionals to discuss political transition and how it translates to economic development in Africa. Bearing in mind that Nigerians would be going to the polls next year to elect the crops of leaders to shepherd the country for another four years, the lecture could not be otherwise but timely.
With the theme: “Political Transitions and Africa’s Economic Development,” Maureen Chigbo, the editor and publisher of the medium, set the tone for the lecture in her welcome address. She said credible election remains the necessarily step towards achieving speedy socio-economic development in any country as that will produce the right crop of leaders that will make appropriate policies.
Besides, she said: “Credible political transitions will yield the kind of leadership that will come out with the right economic policies to jump start the economy and provide the right business environment that will enable all sectors of the economy to thrive especially the oil and gas sector which currently provides more than 80 percent of the country’s revenue.”
According to her the anniversary lecture “is one of the ways Realnews is contributing to the development of our nation by providing a forum for frank discussion by professionals, scholars, technocrats and influential personalities on the way forward for our great nation as the hope for Africa.”
She recalled: “In 2014, we focused on general elections; in 2015 the theme was on the economy, in 2016 the discussion was on security, while in 2017 we focused on the challenges of Leadership in Africa. This year we are deliberately exploring Africa’s political transitions and the economy.”
She maintained that the choice of topic for this year’s edition of the lecture was informed by contemporary political, economic, security and other challenges facing Africa, especially Nigeria, the giant of Africa, as it prepares for the 2019 elections.
Indeed, Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, in his lecture announced that Nigerian general election is about three months away. That notwithstanding, Yakubu warned that the electorate should be allowed to make their choices without let or hindrance. He harped on the need to ensure that Nigerians are able to make their periodic choices through credible elections so that there would be growth and development in the country. He argued: “If votes do not count, then of course, the consequential benefits derivable to the electorate would not be possible because elected office holders would not be accountable.”
Besides, he noted that political stability is a major pre-requisite for economic growth and development. Hence, he said in a situation whereby the result of an election is unacceptable to the general public it would lead to instability in the country. “We have seen nations and cities destroyed by unacceptable electoral outcomes. We have equally seen once happy, contended and thriving people becoming homeless and hopeless in internally displaced persons, IDPs, camps and forced migration to other countries on account of failed elections. Under such circumstances, no meaningful development can occur. Democratic transition through periodic and credible elections is the best way to ensure certainty that will guarantee and sustain political stability.”
He said when elections fail to be free, fair and credible, as largely being experienced in many African countries, such governments are not accountable. Yakubu noted that Nigeria passed through a similar teething period in its political history until 2011, when the recommendations of the Justice Uwais Electoral Reform Committee were adopted for implementation. According to him, since then, the INEC has been striving to ensure that Nigerians could make periodic choices where votes determine the basis for holding elective offices and therefore, representation in government.
Nevertheless, he said the INEC is committed to organising credible elections that the outcome would fully prepared for the next general elections which starts in February, next year.
Yakubu, who is also the president, ECOWAS Network of Electoral Commissions, ECONEC, assured Nigerians that the INEC had embarked “on diligent preparations to ensure that the 2019 general election is credible and meets the goals of ‘election integrity’ that embodies the notion of inclusiveness, transparency and accountability by ensuring that established rules governing the conduct of elections are fully, fairly and impartially enforced.” To achieve credible election, he said some measures had been taken by the commission to improve logistics and various other areas where the commission had been facing challenges.
The measures include the initiation formulation and validation of the strategic plan; the strategic programme of action and the election project plan for 2017 – 2021. Then, there is the full biometric voter registration through continuous voter registration, CVR. According the INEC boss, unlike in the past when voter registration took place intermittently, this was the first time the commission did the registration of eligible voters for a period of 16 months between April 27 and August 31, 2018. Through the exercise, 14.5 million Nigerians were added to the register that already had about 70 million voters. “This brings the register for the 2019 general election to 84.2 million. However, the commission expects the number to drop slightly after running the Automatic Fingerprint Identification System, AFIS, to check possible multiple registrants as well the just concluded display of the register nationwide for claims and objections,” he said.
In the same vein, he disclosed that based on the 2015 general elections, the INEC now prints the permanent voters cards, PVCs, on quarterly basis. Hence, all the cards for voters registered in 2017 have been delivered to states. Similarly, the cards of those who registered in the first two quarters of 2018, have been delivered to their respective states. And that only the 4.1 cards of those who registered for the third quarter will be delivered by the end of November this year. Yakubu assured that registered voters could collect their PVCs from early December until about a week before the start of the general election.
Besides, the INEC chair said that the commission has been able to stabilise the electoral calendar to the extent that Nigerians can now know the dates of national elections. Accordingly, “Nigeria’s national elections will be held on the second Saturday of the month of February of each election year while state elections will be held two weeks later. On this basis, the commission fixed Saturday, February 16, 2019, for presidential and National Assembly elections while governorship and State Assembly elections will hold on Saturday, March 2, 2019.” The INEC boss said this would help stakeholders to plan in advance.
In 2019, he said there will be no more use of incidence form. Instead, he said manual register of voters had been redesigned to provide for thump printing and telephone number of voter whose biometric is not authenticated by the Smart Card Reader. “This will allow for a better check on litigation,” Yakubu said.
He said since 2015 general elections, the commission had successfully conducted several out-of season elections across the country. So far, he said out of the 191 elections conducted, only four had successfully challenged in court. “Even so, the commission was not ordered to re-run the entire elections. In two cases, the commission was ordered to issue certificates of return to the petitioners while in the other two cases, elections were repeated in a few polling units. The number of successful litigations constitutes only two percent of the 191 off-season elections,” he said.
Notwithstanding its success since 2015 general elections, Yakubu said that the commission could not understand the do or die mentality of the Nigerian political class. He noted that they all believe that they must win at all cost. “Many of our political actors are yet to imbibe the true spirit of democracy which is not just about access to elective and non-elective offices in government by all means. Respect for the process is the hallmark of democrat. Democracy and democrats are two sides of the same coin and one cannot exist without the other,” he said.
In the same vein, the commission said it is working with security agencies to enforce the law on vote-buying, which has become an epidemic among the Nigerian politicians.
Another major challenge facing the INEC, according the chairman, is the lack of internal democracy within political parties. Consequently, he said there had been rancorous primaries within political parties which had resulted in plethora of unprecedented pre-election litigations. So far, the INEC chairman said that the commission had been joined in 273 cases; 32 petitions and 220 requests for certified copies of results from aggrieved aspirants. He, therefore, lamented: “Apart from the cost to the commission of legal representation in these cases, the possibility of nullification and consequent court-ordered re-run of elections after the 2019 general elections is high.”
Apart from that, he said incendiary speech by members of the political class is another source of concern for the commission. Yakubu said while the commission does not support censorship with right of people to express themselves, he said: “The commission shares the view of the majority of Nigerians that campaigns should focus on issues that will positively transform the lives of citizens and uplift the nation rather than focus on parties, candidates and supporters.”
That notwithstanding, he said the commission is mindful of the fact the election must take place across the country in a peaceful atmosphere. Therefore, he said the commission is working with “security agencies of the Interagency Consultative Committee of Election Security to secure the election environment and ensure neutrality and professionalism in the conduct of their operatives during elections.”
Above all, he urged for the establishment of the Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal as being recommended to government by three different committees on election. He warned: “If wrong conduct in breach of established rules are not punished, they would be repeated with tragic consequences for our democracy and the nation.”
In any case, Yakubu enjoined Nigerians to join hands with the commission to organise and conduct free, fair and credible elections in 2019. He said: “While we are determined to leave no stone unturned, we know that INEC alone cannot do the job. So we are counting on the goodwill and collaborative partnership of other stakeholders.”
Indeed, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the special representative of the United Nations secretary general, for West Africa and the Sahel, in his goodwill message at the Realnews sixth anniversary lecture, warned that Nigeria’s forthcoming general election is very important for the African continent. He said: “I do not need to remind you that election in Africa’s most populated country and largest economy has implications for the entire continent and beyond. With so much at stake, emotions and tensions will be high. Yet, the elections would only serve the constitutional purpose if they are free, fair, credible and peaceful.”
Consequently, he called on Nigerians to shun hate speech, inflammatory languages and all acts capable of causing disharmony and rancour in the polity.
Making a similar contribution, Charles Okeke, dean, School of Education, Behavioural and Social Sciences and professor of Economics, The College of Southern Nevada, Nevada System of Higher Education Charleston Campus, Las Vegas, US, urged all the stakeholders in the Nigerian elections to ensure that every vote counts.
Based on the coming general elections in Nigeria, Okeke said: “The world is looking at us. The world is looking at this country, they are looking at Africa because we have always being at the receiving end of some of this discuss of the world… So the world is looking at the continent, they like to have us at dinner. I’m saying to you that we need to conduct our elections and our affairs well. We all have a role to play here. It is your responsibility to educate the public. It is not just the INEC, it is a collective effort…”
The professor disclosed that he had met a lot of brilliant Nigerians who would want to help the nation grow, but there must be political stability to encourage them to return and help with the nation building.
In his contribution, Adebayo Olukoshi, a professor of Political Science and director, Africa and West Asia Regional Programme and Liaison Office to the African Union, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, said that although stability and predictability which are integral to the examples given by Yakubu and important ingredient for development, “have to be consciously pursued and nurtured in order for the development dividends to flow from them.”
He argued that “there is no automaticity relationship without the requisite leadership that is necessary in order to harness stability and predictability and convert them into economic dividends.”
Olukoshi said that a major concern a lot citizens and analysts is the intensification of violence. He made reference to Okeke’s submission that elections tend to divide nations and “where there is violence associated with elections you find actually within the correlation which some have done, a dip in investments during election time and the immediate post election period because investors are holding back in order to be sure that a country will still exist after the election has taken place.”
According to him, about 90 percent of African countries are exposed to fluctuations in a downward direction in investment decisions made around election times and the immediate post election period. “This also raises the question of correlation between electoral circle in many of African countries and the developmental patterns which we have had,” he said.
Besides, he argued: “The second element which has been of concern which is not the problem of election management board is the fact that around election times in over 90 percent of African countries, all macroeconomic indicators go completely bonkers essentially because money is either being printed where government has the capacity to print money in order oil the electoral and political process. Basically printing money being give ways, investing in projects probably were on the books for a long time for which resources were not available and the consequence is that inflation tend to be on the rise, budget deficit tend to be a story of the day and domestic indebtedness by government, borrowing from the banking system tend to on the rise.”
He said the African Union view all this as a major issue. “In fact the African Development Bank has put this on the table as one of the key areas of policy and political concerns for many of the countries of the continent. How do we prevent country which otherwise would normally manage their resources in a prudent way from becoming “responsible” with this same resources around election time?”
He said the temptation for the new administration to start on spending spree, which eventually leads the government to submitting to the discipline of international financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank in order to begin to restore macroeconomic discipline.
“I think it is important for us to keep in mind that a lot of cases elected government on the continent most of the countries have actually not been able to master and own macroeconomic policy as a consequence.
“The reason why in some of the academic literature reference has been made to the fact most of the African political transition has been a collection of choiceless democracies. Democracies that do not have a choice in the kind of macroeconomic policy which they make and implement because those policies are essentially determined for them by the international financial institutions. And regardless of which party tends to come to power in most African countries, you find that there might be differences in their political programmes but essentially their economic policy choices remain the same,” he said.
To be out of the quagmire, Olukoshi said African governments must look inward. He said: “Choiceless democracies tend to be very orthodox in their economic policies, whereas genuine democracies tend to determine their macroeconomic policies.”
Similarly, political transition is said to be affecting the oil and gas sector. Simbi Wabote, the executive secretary, Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board, Bayelsa, in his speech, lamented that in the oil and gas industry, apart from the changes in oil price, there are instances in which key projects have suffered from political transition. “This could be as a result of changes in priorities of the new government or due to project promoters belonging to another camp or party. There is need to find ways of separating project portfolio from political transition,” Wabote, who spoke through Tunde Adelami, a director NCDMD, said.
He noted that many times political transition had been used as a tool of violence and disruption of policies. Besides, Wabote argued that there can only be economic and social growth where there is focus and resilience to deliver developments. He advised: “There is need to find ways of separating project portfolio from political transition.”
Commending the Realnews magazine for its choice lecture subject, Haroun Adamu, a former chairman, Petroleum Trust Fund, called on the publication to be a change agent in the Nigerian social and political landscape. He urged the magazine to continue to give a voice to the silent majority and minority groups.
He also commended the Realnews’ reach and willingness to expend its goodwill and capital in gathering such an elite group of erudite scholars and administrators to pontificate and lead in the important topic. He said, it was, therefore, a privilege to be considered to chair the lecture.
That notwithstanding, the experts have warned that only a credible election can bring peace, stability and growth in Nigeria and Africa at large. So, the ball is now in the Nigeria’s court.
– Nov. 16, 2018 @ 1:57 GMT |
Tags: Why Nigeria Must Hold Credible Elections #Realnews2018Lecture
