Opinion
By Emeka Omeihe
THE senate appears bent on having a national headcount before the end of this year. Indication of this prospect emerged when the Chairman, National Population Commission (NPC), Nasir Kwarra appeared before its committee on National Identity and population to defend their allocation in the 2025 budget.
During the session, committee members took turns to express serious concerns over Nigeria’s continued dependence on estimated population data even as they stressed the imperative for accurate census statistics for national planning. For the committee chairman, Abdul Ningi, the lawmakers will formally engage President Tinubu through the office of the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio to discuss plans for the census.
“Our committee will have to write the president through the office of the senate president to know his view about the plan to conduct the census. We are not going to rest on our oars until this census takes place”, he stated.
Their preference for the conduct of the census this year, is in part informed by the need to avoid holding it next year very close to the 2027 general elections. They cited past experiences when the exercise suffered postponements and cancellation due to their closeness to general elections.
Mr. Kwarra told the committee that his agency was also thinking along the same lines and had taken steps to engage the president on the issue. He disclosed that the president has indicated his preference for a census conducted with biometrics to guarantee its reliability especially given the prevailing security situation in the country.
He further explained that the type of census envisaged is not just all about enumeration but one in which biometrics will capture the face, the fingerprint and voice of those counted and sought the support of the senate to ensure the exercise comes a reality.
The concerns of the committee are genuine and patriotic. Though the crucial place of accurate national census has long been recognised, it remained a sour taste in the mouth that past attempts were mired in avoidable controversy leading to the discarding or outright cancellation of their outcomes.
Our policy makers have not been oblivious of the constraints inaccurate census data pose for national development plans. But attempts to redress the situation through headcounts had come out disappointing as efforts to have credible and reliable census were marred by controversy and disputations bordering on the credibility and integrity of the exercise.
The United Nations’ benchmark is for countries to have periodic headcounts every five or 10 years depending on available resources and political will. The last attempt at national census since the return to democracy in 1999 was in 2006 during the regime of Obasanjo. It produced a population of 140 million people.
Before it was the 1991 census conducted under the military that put the population of the country at 88 million people. Like the ones before them, those attempts were not spared of the acrimony and allegations of figure inflation and manipulation. No thanks to the revenue sharing formula and representation into the national and state assemblies that are based on population.
The Buhari administration equally saw the need to give the country accurate census data. But the timelines the regime set for its conduct, raised questions about his commitment to the exercise. Not a few Nigerians raised eyebrows, when Buhari in mid-2022 slated the census exercise a month after the general elections in 2023 and its pilot program before the primaries of the political parties.
This column had then, raised issues on the propriety of the timing. Writing under the headline “Census in crises” in April 2022, I had faulted the timing on two grounds. The first was the inappropriateness in slating the census immediately after general elections while the other revolved around the prevailing insecurity across the country.
Fears were expressed that with the cascading insecurity that made it difficult for the federal government to establish firm presence in some local government areas and communities slating the two serially rancorous and combustive exercises close to each other was a clear invitation to danger. It was inconceivable how a national census could hold a month after elections that are usually highly disputed leading to breakdown of law and order with huge toll in human and material capital. Unlike elections which could be gambled with or manipulated and results declared, a national headcount cannot lend itself to such gamble and manipulation without being rendered worthless.
The exercise involves physical and meticulous headcount of all citizens where ever they live. So, they must be reached by enumeration officers without let or hinderance. It has to capture these vital statistics to be accurate, reliable and to make the desired difference. Such a task would be highly circumscribed in a situation where enumeration officers are prevented by insecurity to access the nooks and cranes of the of the country, it was further argued.
The other plank of the argument had to do with the history of general elections in the country often characterised by violence and rancour that may take quite some time to settle. Post-election violence resulting in widespread demonstrations, destruction of properties and loss of lives are regular features of elections that may render any attempt to conduct a national census immediately after a near impossibility.
But the Buhari government in its characteristic manner, never gave any serious consideration to these. That government realised lately, the incongruity in the two exercises holding close to the other when in mid-2023 Buhari announced the cancellation of the 2023 census exercise only to leave it for the incoming government to handle.
President Tinubu could not have possibly embarked on the census in his first year in office given the time it took to resolve litigations and manage post-election violence in keeping with predictions. The President is about to roundup his first two years in office and there are genuine fears that unless he commits himself to conduct the census this year, that exercise will possibly spill over to the next administration.
That prospect is very high and seems to lend credence to the position of the senate committee on population on the desirability of conducting the census this year. Next year will be too close to the elections especially as various political parties prepare for their primaries. And the election year is completely ruled out for the same reasons that led to the cancellation of the 2023 exercise.
But as attractive as the committee’s position is, it appears not to have taken into account extant challenges that may equally constrain the exercise and impugn its’ integrity-insecurity.
Though the level of decrease in the intensity of insecurity in the country can be argued with varying degrees of plausibility, the fact remains that there are local governments and communities still in the hands of non-state actors and marauding gangs. Borno, Zamfara and Katsina have a host of them. Imo is not left out. And just recently the people of Shiroro in Niger state had cause to cry out about the sovereignty of the bandits within their domain.
These do not exhaust the list of communities rendered unsafe and inaccessible by the devious activities of a coterie of bandits, insurgents and terrorists. It therefore remains to be conjectured how a national headcount that involves physical enumeration of all citizens will fare in the prevailing circumstance. Travellers are regularly kidnapped, dehumanised and made to pay ransom. Unlucky ones have had their lives terminated.
Just recently, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released startling statistics on the embarrassing level of kidnapping and ransom payment in the various geo-political zones between March 2023 and April 2024. The ripples of the NBS data are yet to settle. But they highlight the daunting challenges on the road to a seamless headcount.
It is good a thing the president is interested in the credibility and reliability of the exercise. He is routing for biometrics that will capture pictures, fingerprints and voice of those counted. This is the way to go given the rancorous and disputed outcomes of previous ones.
Biometrics in a relatively safe and secure environment will make the desired difference by ensuring the accuracy and reliability of data so generated. But it should be a serious challenge to our leaders that elections have continued to stand on the way to credible census.
It has remained so because of the credibility and integrity issues that dent their outcome. So as the imperative for credible national census continues to worry our policy makers, the serial inability of our elections to pass integrity tests should also be a serious cause for concern. Had our elections been credible and less rancorous, it may have been easier to conduct censuses without much disruptions. Maybe we have to get our elections right to guarantee hitch-free and credible national census. But a census this year would seem highly improbable.
***The article was first published in The Nation Newspapers.
A.I
Jan. 27, 2025
Tags: Abdul Ningi Emeka Omeihe Godswill Akpabio Nasir Kwarra
